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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT FRI SEP 15 2000
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT MON SEP 18 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
22.4N 89.2W 55 X X X 55 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4
22.9N 89.9W 31 1 X X 32 BURAS LA X X 1 6 7
23.5N 90.5W 17 6 1 1 25 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 6 6
MUSN 216N 826W X X 1 2 3 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 7 7
MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 2 3 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 7 7
MUAN 219N 850W 1 2 3 3 9 GALVESTON TX X X 1 7 8
MMCZ 205N 869W 99 X X X 99 FREEPORT TX X X 1 7 8
MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 3 3 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 1 7 8
MMSO 238N 982W X X X 6 6 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 7 7
MMTM 222N 979W X X X 5 5 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 1 7 8
MMTX 210N 974W X X X 4 4 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2
MMVR 192N 961W X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X X X 5 5
MMFR 185N 926W X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 89W X X 3 6 9
MMMD 210N 897W 26 1 X X 27 GULF 28N 91W X X 4 7 11
KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 93W X X 3 8 11
APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 95W X X 2 8 10
PANAMA CITY FL X X X 2 2 GULF 27N 96W X X 2 8 10
PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 GULF 25N 96W X X 3 7 10
MOBILE AL X X X 3 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1AM SAT TO 1PM SAT
C FROM 1PM SAT TO 1AM SUN
D FROM 1AM SUN TO 1AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
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