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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT SEP 02 2000
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST TUE SEP 5 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
20.5N 58.0W 52 X X X 52 TIST 183N 650W X X 1 2 3
21.5N 60.0W 20 10 1 X 31 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 2 2
23.0N 62.0W 1 15 7 1 24 BERMUDA X X X 4 4
TAPA 171N 618W X X 2 X 2 ST CROIX VI X X 1 1 2
TKPK 173N 627W X X 2 X 2 ST THOMAS VI X X 1 2 3
TNCM 181N 631W X X 3 1 4 SAN JUAN PR X X X 2 2
TISX 177N 648W X X 1 1 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON
C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON
D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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