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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT SEP 02 2000
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  49.8 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST TUE SEP  5 2000
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
17.6N  53.9W      50  X  X  X 50   TNCM 181N 631W     X  X  3 13 16
18.4N  56.3W      17 15  X  X 32   TISX 177N 648W     X  X  X 13 13
19.0N  58.5W       X 17  6  1 24   TIST 183N 650W     X  X  X 14 14
TBPB 131N 595W     X  X  1  1  2   TJPS 180N 666W     X  X  X 10 10
TVSV 131N 612W     X  X  X  2  2   MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  X  3  3
TLPL 138N 610W     X  X  1  3  4   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  X 12 12
TFFF 146N 610W     X  X  3  4  7   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  X  2  2
TDPR 153N 614W     X  X  4  5  9   ST CROIX VI        X  X  X 13 13
TFFR 163N 615W     X  X  7  6 13   ST THOMAS VI       X  X  X 14 14
TAPA 171N 618W     X  X  8  7 15   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  X 12 12
TKPK 173N 627W     X  X  4 11 15   PONCE PR           X  X  X 10 10
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
C FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
D FROM  2AM MON TO  2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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