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TROPICAL STORM CHRIS PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI AUG 18 2000
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST MON AUG 21 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.4N 59.2W 50 X X X 50 MDCB 176N 714W X X X 4 4
19.4N 61.4W 17 15 X 1 33 MTPP 186N 724W X X X 4 4
20.3N 63.6W X 18 5 1 24 MTCA 183N 738W X X X 2 2
TFFF 146N 610W X 2 1 X 3 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 2 2
TDPR 153N 614W X 5 2 X 7 TJSJ 184N 661W X 1 10 5 16
TFFR 163N 615W 2 11 2 X 15 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 10 10
TAPA 171N 618W 3 16 1 1 21 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 11 11
TKPK 173N 627W 1 15 2 1 19 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 7 7
TNCM 181N 631W 1 17 3 1 22 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2
TISX 177N 648W X 4 10 2 16 ST CROIX VI X 4 10 2 16
TIST 183N 650W X 5 10 2 17 ST THOMAS VI X 5 10 2 17
TJPS 180N 666W X X 8 5 13 SAN JUAN PR X 1 10 5 16
MDSD 185N 697W X X 1 8 9 PONCE PR X X 8 5 13
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT
C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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