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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2000
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SUN AUG 13 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
29.5N 80.3W 44 X 1 X 45 WILMINGTON NC X X 6 9 15
30.5N 79.8W 28 1 1 X 30 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 3 11 14
31.5N 78.0W 4 9 8 2 23 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 1 11 12
MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X X X 9 9
MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 6 6
MYGF 266N 787W 4 2 2 1 9 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 3 3
MIAMI FL 1 1 X 1 3 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 1 1 3
W PALM BEACH FL 8 1 1 1 11 FT MYERS FL 2 2 1 1 6
FT PIERCE FL 22 1 X X 23 VENICE FL 3 3 1 X 7
COCOA BEACH FL 99 X X X 99 TAMPA FL 11 2 1 X 14
DAYTONA BEACH FL 38 X X X 38 CEDAR KEY FL 12 3 1 X 16
JACKSONVILLE FL 23 2 X 1 26 ST MARKS FL 2 5 3 1 11
SAVANNAH GA 6 8 4 2 20 APALACHICOLA FL X 3 2 1 6
CHARLESTON SC 1 7 8 3 19 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 1 1 3
MYRTLE BEACH SC X 2 8 7 17 GULF 29N 85W X 2 1 1 4
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT
D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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