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TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1700
1500Z TUE OCT 17 2000
 
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N  71.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N  71.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N  71.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.5N  70.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 32.0N  70.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.0N  69.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N  71.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 38.0N  66.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 47.0N  60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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