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TROPICAL STORM KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1500
0300Z TUE OCT 03 2000
 
...CORRECT INLAND TO OVER WATER AT 48 AND 72 HR...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE MEXICO TO THE MEXICO-
BELIZE BORDER....AND HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.  IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE HURRICANE
WARNING BE REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MONKEY RIVER
TOWN BELIZE TO THE MEXICO-BELIZE BORDER.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  88.1W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 45NE  90SE  45SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  88.1W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  88.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.2N  88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 45NE  90SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.0N  88.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.4N  89.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  88.1W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 22.5N  90.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 26.0N  93.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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