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HURRICANE KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1500
2100Z MON OCT 02 2000
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.  THIS MAY BE CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH LATER TODAY.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  88.0W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT DRIFTING WEST
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 45NE  90SE  90SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  88.0W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  87.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.8N  88.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 45NE  90SE  90SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.9N  88.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.4N  89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N  88.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N  90.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 25.5N  92.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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