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HURRICANE KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1500
1500Z MON OCT 02 2000
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO. THIS MAY BE CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH LATER TODAY.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 87.8W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 90SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 87.8W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 87.8W
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.7N 87.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N 88.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.5N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 87.8W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 21.5N 89.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.0N 91.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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