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HURRICANE KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1500
0900Z MON OCT 02 2000
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  87.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  45SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  87.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  87.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.0N  87.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.0N  88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  35SW  35NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N  87.8W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 21.5N  89.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 25.5N  91.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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