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HURRICANE KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1500
0900Z MON OCT 02 2000
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 87.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 45SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 87.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 87.8W
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.0N 87.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 45SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 45SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.0N 88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 35SW 35NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 87.8W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 21.5N 89.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 25.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
FORECASTER STEWART
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