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HURRICANE KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1500
0300Z SUN OCT 01 2000
CORRECTION...CENTER IS NOT INLAND IN 72 HOURS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  87.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 120SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  87.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  87.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.3N  87.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.0N  87.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.0N  87.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N  87.1W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 21.0N  87.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  95 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 24.0N  88.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
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