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TROPICAL STORM KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1500
0900Z SAT SEP 30 2000
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL MEXICO TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO.  HURRICANE
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA AND FURTHER
SOUTH TO BELIZE LATER TODAY.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  86.3W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT.......120NE  75SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE 130SE  60SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  86.3W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  86.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.7N  86.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 19.5N  87.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 20.4N  87.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N  86.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 21.5N  87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 23.5N  87.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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