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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1500
1500Z FRI SEP 29 2000
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  84.3W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  84.3W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  84.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.5N  84.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.0N  84.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.5N  85.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  84.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 19.5N  85.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 20.5N  85.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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