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TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM PST TUE NOV 07 2000
 
IN THE ABSENCE OF RECON THIS EVENING THE CENTER IS HARD TO
LOCATE...BUT IT APPEARS THAT ROSA IS BASICALLY ON TRACK.  THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/05.  NO MAJOR CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO
THE FORECAST TRACK...AND ROSA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY
OF PUERTO ANGEL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  

CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST 6 TO 9 HOURS AND THE AREAL
COVERAGE HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 45 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. 
THEREAFTER...ROUGH TERRAIN SHOULD DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT CAN
EMERGE INTACT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 15.3N  96.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 16.0N  96.4W    40 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     09/0000Z 17.0N  95.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT     09/1200Z 18.2N  95.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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