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TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM PST TUE NOV 07 2000
 
THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN WITH FIRST VISIBLE
IMAGERY...A TRMM OVERPASS...AND A RADAR IMAGE FROM PUERTO ANGEL.  TO
FURTHER CONFUSE...A QUIKSCAT PASS LAST NIGHT SHOWED NO CLOSED
CIRCULATION.  ASSUMING THERE IS A CLOSED CENTER...THE EVIDENCE
SUGGESTS THAT IT IS ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK.  SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...I AM SHIFTING THE
TRACK ONLY 50 MILES EASTWARD.  OTHERWISE THE TRACK SCENARIO REMAINS
THE ABOUT SAME...SLOW FORWARD MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
FOLLOWING THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS.  THE AVN IS A LITTLE
FASTER AND THE LBAR IS A LOT FASTER.  THE CHANGE IN TRACK REQUIRES
SHIFTING THE WATCH AND WARNING EASTWARD.
 
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 45-55 KNOT RANGE
...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.  ONLY THE UKMET
MODEL SHOWS ANY STRENGTHENING AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES 31
KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR IN 36 HOURS.  BUT RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS A
COLD CDO AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.  SO I AM
FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED TO 60 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
A USAF RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH THE AREA ABOUT
16Z AND SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND INTENSITY MAY BE
RESOLVED AT THAT TIME.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 14.0N  98.0W    50 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 14.6N  97.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 15.3N  97.2W    60 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 16.2N  96.7W    40 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     09/1200Z 17.0N  96.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     10/1200Z 19.0N  94.5W    DISSIPATED
  
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