HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM PST MON NOV 06 2000
 
THERE APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN LITTLE MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
BUT THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS ABOUT 345/4.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS A LITTLE
SLOWER AND A TAD TO THE RIGHT.  BOTH THE AVN AND THE UKMET SHOW A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE COAST WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...IN
ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD WEST OF ROSA.  THE
GFDL AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HARD RIGHT TURN...BUT THESE
MODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN TOO EAGER TO TURN THE SYSTEM AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE IT IS SUFFERING FROM SOME
SHEAR...AS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW MOSTLY EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER AND IN RECENT HOURS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY EDGING FARTHER AWAY.
THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST WEAKENING...AND THE SHIPS MODEL
IS LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT STRENGTHENING THAN IT WAS EARLIER.  WITH
THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
PULLS BACK A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND KEEPS ROSA A
TROPICAL STORM.

WITH THE RECENT LACK OF MOVEMENT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORECAST TRACK
NO WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 13.2N  99.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 13.8N  99.1W    60 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 14.7N  98.7W    60 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 15.5N  98.1W    60 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 16.5N  97.5W    35 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     10/0000Z 18.5N  95.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
 
NNNN