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TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM PST SUN NOV 05 2000
 
ROSA HAD ITS BEST APPEARANCE RIGHT AROUND 00Z...WHEN THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 AND 45 KT...
RESPECTIVELY.  AT THAT TIME SOME BANDING HAD DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER BUT THIS FEATURE HAS SINCE WEAKENED.  IN THE
MEANTIME...A NEW BURST IS GOING OFF VERY NEAR THE CENTER. 
OVERALL...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE FORWARD
MOTION HAS SLOWED.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8...A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
THE SPEED HAS BEEN CLOSE TO 6 KT.  WITH THE TRACK CONTINUING TO EDGE
TO THE RIGHT...THIS COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF THE ANTICIPATED
NORTHWARD TURN IN ADVANCE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AHEAD OF
THE CYCLONE.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE UKMET...GFDL...AND NOGAPS SHOWING A HARD RIGHT
TURN TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE AVN AND BAMS SHOWING A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK.

OUTFLOW APPEARS DECENT AND THE SHEAR IS LOW.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS IN NO BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE SHIPS MODEL
FORECASTS 75 KT IN 72 HOURS...BUT THE GFDL WEAKENS THE SYSTEM
SHARPLY AFTER 30 HOURS.  WITH THE SSTS IN THE PATH OF ROSA BECOMING
INCREASINGLY WARM...THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR WOULD BE INCREASING
SHEAR FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO
BE IMPORTANT FOR ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS OR MORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A CONTINUED SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF
AND LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER.  I DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AN INNER CORE...AND IF THIS OCCURS
THEN A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING.  THIS
COULD THEN MITIGATE AGAINST THE ANTICIPATED SHEAR INCREASE LATER. 
INTERESTS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO ZIHUATANEJO
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 11.5N  99.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 12.0N  99.7W    45 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 13.1N 100.1W    50 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 14.3N 100.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 15.5N  99.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     09/0000Z 17.5N  98.5W    55 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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