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TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM PST SUN NOV 05 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/09. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO.  A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IS
FORECAST BY THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL RUN TO MOVE OUT AND BE REPLACED
BY ANOTHER IN 72 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED AND
CAUSE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL...UKMET...
NOGAPS AND LBAR MODELS.  THE AVN...BAM AND STATISTICAL TRACK MODELS
HOWEVER SHOW A SLOW MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE RECURVING
SOLUTION.
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0/3.0/2.5 FROM SAB/TAFB/KGWC WITH A
RAGGED CDO FEATURE AND MINIMAL BANDING. IN CONTRAST...A 1203Z
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN EAST/WEST ELONGATED LOW AND ALL
UNCONTAMINATED WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS.  THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES
NOT SHOW A WELL DEFINED CENTER ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE HIDDEN UNDER THE
CDO.  I AM RELUCTANTLY UPGRADING TO A 35 KNOT STORM AS A COURSE OF
LEAST REGRET.
 
THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 72 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS BASED
MAINLY ON LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.  BUT THE GFDL MODEL
DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS AND THE UKMET GOES FOR SLIGHT
WEAKENING.  THE AVIATION MODEL ALSO FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE SLOW STRENGTHENING TO 50 KNOTS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 10.9N  97.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 11.1N  98.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 11.5N  99.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     07/0000Z 12.5N 100.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     07/1200Z 13.6N 100.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N 100.0W    50 KTS
  
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