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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM PST FRI NOV 03 2000
 
A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FIRED OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SHIP WMBK...WHICH WAS EAST
OF AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER...REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1003 MB AND
WINDS OF 18 KT AT 00Z.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK NUMBERS STILL GIVE 25
KT...THE PRESSURE WOULD SUGGEST THAT HIGHER WINDS ARE PROBABLY
PRESENT IN THE CONVECTION AND THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 30 KT.  AN
SSMI OVERPASS SHOWED GOOD ORGANIZATION IN THE LOW CLOUD BANDS AND
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS NOT BAD.  THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE LESS
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM THAN THERE WAS 24 HOURS AGO.

LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTED A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE 290/10.  THE
DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD
PRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER...A
LARGE-SCALE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD TO 10N.  THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO BE REINFORCED AND ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE...A SCENARIO
WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY SLOW AND TURN THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST OR NORTH BY 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS MORE
CURVATURE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
BAM AND THE STATISTICAL P91E.
 
THE SYSTEM HAS COME A LONG WAY SINCE YESTERDAY BUT HAS NOT YET BEEN
ABLE TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION FOR VERY LONG.  THE SHIPS MODEL
PARAMETERS ARE ALL FAVORABLE AND THE MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO
74 KT IN 72 HOURS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL DISSIPATES THE
SYSTEM IN 30 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE EQUALLY EQUIVOCAL...WITH
THE AVN STRENGTHENING THE SYSTEM AND THE UKMET DISSING IT.  GIVEN
THE KNOWN BIASES IN SHIPS AND THE AVN...ONLY LIMITED STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE SHIP WMBK ALSO REPORTED 12 FOOT SEAS AND THIS INFORMATION HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0300Z 10.8N  91.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     04/1200Z 11.1N  92.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     05/0000Z 11.5N  94.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     05/1200Z 11.9N  96.2W    40 KTS
48HR VT     06/0000Z 12.5N  97.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     07/0000Z 14.0N  99.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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