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TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 28 2000
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND BARELY A
DEPRESSION.  CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF BARELY 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BROAD AND ELONGATED EAST-WEST WHICH
MAKES POSITIONING DIFFICULT.  THERE MAY BE SMALLER CIRCULATIONS
WITHIN THE LARGER ENVELOPE...AND THE OFFICIAL POSITION IS ROUGHLY
THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF THE LARGER SWIRL OF CLOUDS.  PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
MAY TRACK MORE WESTWARD THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING. 
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A MODERATE SHEAR PATTERN FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS...ALL THREE GLOBAL MODELS  FORECAST
THE 200 MB WINDS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO WEAKEN...ESPECIALLY IF
PAUL REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF 15N LATITUDE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
MAINTAINS PAUL AT MINIMUM DEPRESSION STRENGTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT THE SYSTEM COULD JUST AS EASILY WEAKEN BELOW DEPRESSION STRENGTH
DUE TO THE SHEAR.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 11.9N 126.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 12.0N 128.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 12.1N 130.2W    30 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 12.4N 132.4W    30 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 12.7N 134.8W    30 KTS
72HR VT     31/1800Z 13.5N 140.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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