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TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT OCT 28 2000
 
THE CENTER IS HARD TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY THIS MORNING.  THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/14. THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL FORECASTS
A RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE EXCEPT LBAR SHOWS A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION CONTINUING.  LBAR HAS INEXPLICABLY BEEN FAR TO RIGHT OF THE
OTHER MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO AND AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS PEAKED
AND WEAKENED AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KNOTS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC.  PAUL IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THIS
BASIS.  FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  WITH STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
CONTINUING TO IMPINGE ON PAUL...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
DISSIPATION OCCURRED WELL BEFORE 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 11.7N 124.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 11.7N 126.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 11.8N 129.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 12.2N 132.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 12.6N 134.3W    30 KTS
72HR VT     31/0600Z 13.8N 138.5W    30 KTS
  
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