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TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI OCT 27 2000

TROPICAL STORM PAUL HAS REDEVELOPED CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM
CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED TO
THE EAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10.  PAUL HAS MADE A SLIGHT
POLEWARD JOG...BUT A GENERAL TURN BACK MORE TOWARD A 285 DEGREES
MOTION IS EXPECTED NOW THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD
BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF PAUL AND HELP TO TURN THE SYSTEM MORE
WESTWARD IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...WITH PAUL MOVING INTO UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
SIMILAR TO ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...ONLY FARTHER TO THE
RIGHT OR MORE POLEWARD.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
DIFFLUENT...WHICH HAS LIKELY AIDED THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION...THE MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  AS A RESULT...THERE SHOULD BE
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION WITH
WEAKENING GENERALLY OCCURRING DURING THE DAY AND REDEVELOPMENT AT
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
36 HOURS WITH ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AFTERWARDS WHEN THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE A LITTLE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 11.7N 119.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 12.1N 121.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 12.6N 122.9W    35 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 12.9N 124.6W    35 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 13.3N 126.3W    40 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 13.8N 129.1W    40 KTS
 
 
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