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TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU OCT 26 2000
 
MOST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PAUL HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45
KT...BUT WITH THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL
REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE CENTER IS MOVING A LITTLE
SLOWER AND MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY
IS A MORE CONSERVATIVE 275/12...BUT THE LONG-AWAITED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION MAY BE STARTING.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT 23N...WITH
RIDGING BETWEEN IT AND PAUL.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS
TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE FOR 24 TO 48 HR...WHICH WOULD SLOW
PAUL AND ALLOW IT TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST.  AFTER 48 HR...THE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD...WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN AND PAUL TO
TURN MORE WESTWARD.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN 6 HR AGO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.  THE ONLY OUTLIERS ARE THE LBAR
(NORTHWEST) AND THE AIR FORCE MM5 (WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST).

PAUL HAD LITTLE CONVECTION AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT FLARE-UP NEAR THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM.  IT IS LIKELY A
SIMILAR FLARE-UP WILL OCCUR IN 6 TO 12 HR.  THE AVN AND UKMET
FORECAST DECREASING SHEAR OVER PAUL.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THOSE MODELS UNDERESTIMATE THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
WEST OF THE STORM.  THE NOGAPS INITIALIZATION LOOKS BETTER...AND IT
FORECASTS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  BASED ON THAT...LESS
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT THE WESTERLIES COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN OR
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 10.6N 118.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 10.9N 119.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 11.3N 120.8W    35 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 11.8N 122.1W    40 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 12.5N 123.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 13.5N 127.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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