HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU OCT 26 2000
 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS BEEN WANING A LITTLE AS THE
DIURNAL MINIMUM IS APPROACHED.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 18Z
WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD
AT 35 KT DUE TO THE RATHER RATTY APPEARANCE SINCE THEN.  KGWC CAME
IN WITH AN ESTIMATE OF 30 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM MAY LESSEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND ALLOW SOME
STRENGTHENING.  IF PAUL REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK IT WOULD
AVOID AN INCREASE IN SHEAR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND COULD
STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/13.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO SIGN OF A
NORTHWARD COMPONENT THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING
FOR 24 HOURS.  GIVEN THE CURRENTLY NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE
SURROUNDING LOW LEVEL FLOW...IT IS HARD TO GO WITH THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 10.2N 117.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 10.3N 119.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 10.8N 120.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 11.3N 121.6W    45 KTS
48HR VT     28/1800Z 12.0N 123.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     29/1800Z 13.0N 125.5W    50 KTS
 
 
NNNN