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TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU OCT 26 2000
A TRMM OVERPASS AT 08Z PLACED THE CIRCULATION CENTER VERY CLOSE TO
THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT
AND COLD OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT...AND SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM PAUL. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM MAY LESSEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND ALLOW SOME
STRENGTHENING. IF PAUL REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK IT WOULD
AVOID AN INCREASE IN SHEAR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND COULD
STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE.
THE MOTION OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS WAS STILL A LITTLE SOUTH OF
WEST...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THAT IS DIGGING SOUTH OF 30N LATITUDE. THE AVN FORECASTS THIS
TROUGH TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH...TO NEAR 20N...AND BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT WITH FURTHER
SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED. THE PERSISTENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER...COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE CYCLONE STILL HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...HAS PERSUADED ME TO
STAY A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF NEARLY ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS STILL WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
MODELS...WHICH ARE OFTEN GOOD PERFORMERS IN THE EAST PACIFIC.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/1500Z 10.3N 115.6W 35 KTS
12HR VT 27/0000Z 10.4N 116.9W 35 KTS
24HR VT 27/1200Z 10.9N 118.5W 40 KTS
36HR VT 28/0000Z 11.6N 119.7W 45 KTS
48HR VT 28/1200Z 12.5N 121.0W 50 KTS
72HR VT 29/1200Z 13.5N 123.5W 55 KTS
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