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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU OCT 26 2000

SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING NEAR AND OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT THE SYSTEM REMAINS SHEARED.  THERE IS LITTLE
OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0
SO THE MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE REMAINS 30 KNOTS.  SINCE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED
TODAY.  IN A DAY OR SO...THE SHEAR MAY RELAX JUST A LITTLE...SO SOME
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BY THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL RUN.

THE CENTER WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF WEST BUT NOW APPEARS TO
BE MOVING ESSENTIALLY WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED THAN
BEFORE.  A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 30N LATITUDE.  THE
NCEP GLOBAL...AVN...MODEL FORECASTS THIS TROUGH TO DIG FARTHER
SOUTH...TO NEAR 20N...AND BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BYPASS THE
CYCLONE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT WITH FURTHER SLOWING OF FORWARD
SPEED.  THIS IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...BUT
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE AVN MODEL-BASED TRACK PREDICTIONS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 10.4N 114.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 10.7N 116.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 11.3N 117.6W    35 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 12.0N 119.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 12.8N 120.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 14.0N 122.5W    50 KTS
 
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