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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2000
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E CONTINUES AS A TIGHTLY WOUND LOW
LEVEL CENTER WITH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS DISPLACING THE MAIN
CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER...BUT ARE HAVING TROUBLE PERSISTING.  THE
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/14.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST...WITH A RIDGE
BETWEEN THAT FEATURE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY
48 HR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.  AFTER 48 HR...THE TROUGH WILL STOP DIGGING AND MOVE
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE DEPRESSION...WITH THE WEAK RIDGE IN BETWEEN
MOVING THE CYCLONE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING
FOR A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND DECELERATION TO 7 KT BY 36
HR.  THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MORE NORTHERLY AVN AND BAM
MODELS AND THE MORE SOUTHERLY NOGAPS AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
MODELS.
 
THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND LACK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION DO NOT
FAVOR STRENGTHENING.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR SHOULD
DECREASE SOME BY 24 TO 36 HR...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING
IF THE CYCLONE REDEVELOPS CENTRAL CONVECTION BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL ASSUME THAT IT CAN...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW MODEST STRENGTHENING AFTER 24 HR.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INDICATE MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 10.7N 113.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 10.8N 115.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 11.1N 117.1W    30 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 11.5N 118.6W    35 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 12.0N 120.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 13.5N 122.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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