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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2000

AN EARLIER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE CYCLONE HAS SUBSIDED.  AT THE MOMENT OLIVIA IS VOID OF
DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME REGENERATION DURING THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL MAXIMUM PERIOD LATER TONIGHT.  AT 00Z...THE SYSTEM
WAS STILL CLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE AND CURRENT INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 25 KNOTS.  VERTICAL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED...BUT NOW OLIVIA
IS MOVING OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.  BARRING A MAJOR COMEBACK...THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE
DECLARED DISSIPATED IN 24 HOURS...OR SOONER.

A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES...315/06.  THE DISSIPATING
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE
TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTH.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A
BLEND OF THE LATEST U.K. MET OFFICE AND GFDL MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0300Z 21.0N 118.5W    25 KTS
12HR VT     10/1200Z 21.8N 118.8W    25 KTS
24HR VT     11/0000Z 22.7N 118.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     11/1200Z 23.5N 118.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     12/0000Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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