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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 07 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/07.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH THE
GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET INDICATING RECURVATURE.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD AND CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS SHOWN IN THE 12 AVIATION MODEL 500 MB FIELDS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT NOT QUITE AS FAR AS THE MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE.
 
A VERY COLD CDO FEATURE FORMED OVER THE STORM TODAY BUT THE CLOUD
TOPS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO WARM AGAIN.  THE WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS AND FORECAST TO 60 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS.  A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AT 48 HOURS AS COOLER WATERS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 16.8N 112.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 17.1N 113.6W    60 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 17.9N 114.8W    60 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 18.9N 116.2W    60 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     10/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W    40 KTS
  
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