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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT OCT 07 2000
 
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...ONLY TO
WEAKEN A FEW HOURS LATER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB INDICATED 55 KT AT 06Z.  HOWEVER..A QUICKSCAT PASS AT ABOUT
130 UTC INDICATED A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF ONLY ABOUT 30 TO 35
KNOTS...WHICH IS NEAR AIR FORCE GLOBALS ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS. 
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS.  OUTFLOW
REMAINS FAIR TO POOR TO THE WEST AND RESTRICTED TO THE EAST DUE TO
EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 285/06.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CLUSTERED ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK... EXCEPT FOR THE GFDN
WHICH TAKES OLIVIA TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST...AND THE
DEEP BAMD MODEL WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY DUE WEST.
 
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST
REASONING.  THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS WITH STRENGTHENING AT NIGHT AND WEAKENING DURING THE
DAY AS THE CONVECTION PULSES.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL INTENSITY TREND
SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT AS THE HIGH-LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.  THE 72 HOUR WIND
SPEED DECREASE IS A RESULT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0900Z 16.0N 111.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     07/1800Z 16.4N 112.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     08/0600Z 16.9N 113.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     08/1800Z 17.8N 115.1W    40 KTS
48HR VT     09/0600Z 18.8N 116.8W    40 KTS
72HR VT     10/0600Z 22.1N 119.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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