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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI OCT 06 2000
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT APPEARED EARLIER OVER THE CENTER APPEARS TO
BE GETTING SHEARED FROM THE EAST...AGAIN.  THE WIND SPEED IS
DECREASED 5 KNOTS TO 40 KNOTS AND THIS VALUE IS MAINTAINED THROUGH
72 HOURS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD WELL BE SEVERAL MORE FLUCTUATIONS.
 
AS BEFORE...THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY...WITH THE MOTION BEING INFLUENCED BY A RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER MEXICO AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 15.5N 109.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 15.4N 110.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 15.5N 111.3W    40 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 16.0N 112.7W    40 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 16.7N 114.8W    40 KTS
72HR VT     09/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W    40 KTS
  
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