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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI OCT 06 2000
 
A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REAPPEARED OVER THE CENTER AND THE
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL
INDICATES A SLIGHT EASING OF VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH IS PROBABLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION.  THE FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH 72 HOURS AS OLIVIA CONTINUES MOVING OVER WARM WATER.

THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...
WITH THE MOTION BEING INFLUENCED BY A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
MEXICO AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 15.4N 109.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 15.4N 110.3W    45 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 15.5N 111.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 16.0N 112.7W    45 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 16.5N 114.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     09/1200Z 18.5N 118.5W    45 KTS

 
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