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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI OCT 06 2000
 
OLIVIA APPEARS TO BE GOING DOWN HILL FAST.  THE STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL. THE SYSTEM HAS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AND I AM DECREASING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
TAKES OLIVIA TO A DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS.  THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
HAVE SEVERAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
SLOWLY WINDS DOWN.
 
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH OF WEST..ABOUT 250/4 KT.   WITH
THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE AND THE
BAMS IS A GOOD CHOICE FOR TRACK FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FOLLOWS THIS SUGGESTION AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 15.5N 109.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 15.4N 109.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     07/0600Z 15.5N 110.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     07/1800Z 15.9N 111.9W    30 KTS
48HR VT     08/0600Z 16.5N 113.6W    25 KTS
72HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N 118.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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