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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU OCT 05 2000
 
THE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES...AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS.  IT HAS CERTAINLY TAKEN ITS TOLL WHEN ONE COMPARES THE AREA
OF COLD CLOUD TOPS TONIGHT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  LIKEWISE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS ALSO DECREASED BY 10 KNOTS.  THE SAME
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THIS SAME SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. 
IF THIS IS THE CASE THE SYSTEM WOULD BE REDUCED TO...AT BEST...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SAME TIME PERIOD.  IN THE FACE OF THIS
STRONG POSSIBILITY... THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WANTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THE INTENSITY TO 60 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES
REMAIN AT 55/55/45 FROM TAFB/SAB/AIR FORCE GLOBAL.  THE OFFICIAL
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS AND 45 KNOTS IS
FORECAST THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES  MOVING SOUTH OF WEST..ABOUT 260/5 KT OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS.  BOTH THE AVN...UKMET AND GFDL HAVE SUGGESTED THAT
THIS MIGHT HAPPEN AND WOULD CONTINUE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
BEFORE THE SYSTEM TURNS ON A MORE WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION.  THE OFFICIAL FOLLOWS THIS SUGGESTION BUT DOES NOT MOVE
AS FAST IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AS MOST OF THE MODELS
DO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
TRACK AND NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE AVN AND UKMET.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 15.7N 108.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 15.6N 109.3W    45 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 15.7N 110.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 16.0N 111.6W    45 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 16.4N 113.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     09/0000Z 18.0N 117.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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