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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU OCT 05 2000
 
OLIVIA CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR.  CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...USING THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION RULES...REMAIN
AT 45/55/55 KNOTS FROM SAB/TAFB/AIR FORCE GLOBAL.  INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KNOTS.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS
EASTERLY SHEAR TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE SHIPS
INTENSITY FORECAST TECHNIQUE CALCULATES THIS AS A MAJOR REASON FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CONTINUES TO MIRROR THIS REASONING.
 
OLIVIA APPEARS TO BE PICKING UP FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING AT
280/07.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THAT A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL NORTH
OF OLIVIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT BECOME STRONGER DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS
A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS AND A
SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH SEEM TO HAVE GOTTEN THEIR ACT
TOGETHER...ALTHOUGH THE AVN MODEL TAKES A TORTUROUS ROUTE TO GET TO
THE SAME PLACE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0900Z 16.1N 107.7W    55 KTS
12HR VT     05/1800Z 16.2N 108.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     06/0600Z 16.4N 110.3W    55 KTS
36HR VT     06/1800Z 16.7N 112.1W    55 KTS
48HR VT     07/0600Z 17.2N 114.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     08/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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