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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE OCT 03 2000
 
VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STORM IS SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING...WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 40 KNOTS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE AREA.  NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES
TO AFFECT OLIVIA...SO ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MOTION OVERNIGHT.  LATEST GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OLIVIA FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL TRACK. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/1500Z 15.3N 104.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     04/0000Z 15.4N 104.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     04/1200Z 15.5N 105.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N 106.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N 107.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     06/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W    60 KTS
 
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