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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE OCT 03 2000
 
SATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.5/3.0/1.5 FROM
TAFB/SAB/KGWC...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
EVEN THOUGH I AM RELUCTANT TO DO THIS BASED ON ON INFRARED IMAGERY
WITHOUT KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER FROM EITHER SSM/I
OR QUICKSCAT.  AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE FORECAST IS FOR
SLOW STRENGTHENING BASED ON WARM SSTS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/03.  A 500 MB RIDGE OVER MEXICO
AND A LOW BECOMING A TROUGH NEAR 29N 125W SHOULD STEER THE STORM ON
A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS RATHER SLOW
MOTION AND THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS ARE VERY SLOW.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT A HAIR
SLOWER...NOT EXCEEDING FIVE KNOTS FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0900Z 15.4N 104.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     03/1800Z 15.4N 105.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     04/0600Z 15.6N 106.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     04/1800Z 16.0N 106.9W    50 KTS
48HR VT     05/0600Z 16.4N 107.8W    55 KTS
72HR VT     06/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W    60 KTS
  
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