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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 02 2000
 
SATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.5/2.5/1.5 FROM
TAFB/SAB/KGWC...SO THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH.  BUT THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE BANDING FEATURE CONTRIBUTING TO
CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AT 00Z HAVE WARMED A BIT IN THE LAST HOUR OR
TWO AND I WILL HOLD OFF FOR SIX MORE HOURS BEFORE UPGRADING TO A
TROPICAL STORM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY CALLING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION WITH WARM WATER
AHEAD AND VERTICAL SHEAR THAT THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES HAS
INCREASED A LITTLE TO BECOME A MILDLY NEGATIVE FACTOR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/04.  THE AVIATION MODEL WEAKENS
THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER MEXICO AS A LOW NEAR 29N 125W KICKS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUED SLOW FORWARD
SPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE UKMET
MODEL...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0300Z 15.5N 104.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z 15.6N 104.9W    35 KTS
24HR VT     04/0000Z 15.7N 106.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     04/1200Z 16.2N 107.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     05/0000Z 16.8N 108.1W    50 KTS
72HR VT     06/0000Z 18.2N 110.0W    60 KTS
 
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