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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON OCT 02 2000
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 30 N MI SOUTHEAST OF
THE ESTIMATED CENTER REPORTED WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 26 KNOTS.
THERE IS SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/5. THERE IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL
SHOWS SOME WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUED SLOW FORWARD
SPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE
SOLUTIONS SHOWN BY THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION AND U.K. MET. OFFICE
MODELS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 15.5N 104.0W 30 KTS
12HR VT 03/0600Z 15.5N 104.7W 35 KTS
24HR VT 03/1800Z 15.8N 105.7W 40 KTS
36HR VT 04/0600Z 16.2N 106.5W 45 KTS
48HR VT 04/1800Z 16.8N 107.4W 50 KTS
72HR VT 05/1800Z 18.0N 109.0W 60 KTS
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