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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON OCT 02 2000

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE
SOUTH OF MEXICO SHOW THAT THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A
DEPRESSION.  BASED ON A NEARBY SHIP REPORT...THE SURFACE CIRCULATION
IS QUITE SMALL AT THIS TIME.  SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG
OVER THE AREA...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

INITIAL MOVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/4.  THERE
IS A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AT
THIS TIME...WHICH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS TO BE SLOWLY WEAKENING
IN ITS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT BEND TO THE
RIGHT WITH A SLOW FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/1500Z 15.5N 103.3W    25 KTS
12HR VT     03/0000Z 15.6N 104.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     03/1200Z 16.0N 105.3W    35 KTS
36HR VT     04/0000Z 16.3N 106.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     04/1200Z 16.7N 106.8W    45 KTS
72HR VT     05/1200Z 17.5N 108.5W    55 KTS
 
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