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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 22 2000

TROPIAL DEPRESSION NORMAN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OTHER THAN A
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND ALSO INLAND
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS
BASED ON A 22/0105Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING WESTERLY RAIN-CONTAMINATED
WINDS OF 35 TO  40 KT SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT
30 TO 32 KT CORRECTED SURFACE WINDS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/09.  TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN
GRADUALLY TURN NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND MOVE INLAND BY 36 HOURS. THIS
SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...
EXCEPT THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER DUE TO EXPECTED
INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH MOUNTIANOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MEXICO.
 
LAND INTERACTION SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NORMAN COULD BRIEFLY
REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL...
BUT THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND MAINLY IN SQUALLS
NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD BE AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN.
 
HOWEVER...NORMAN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND THE THREAT OF FLOODING FROM
POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OR MORE WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY FROM PUERTO VALLARTA NORTH TO LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 22.0N 106.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 23.1N 107.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 24.7N 108.2W    30 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 25.9N 108.6W    25 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
48HR VT     24/0600Z 27.0N 108.5W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATED
 
 
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