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TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 20 2000
 
SHIP 3ESU8 REPORTED 38 KT AND 1001.5 MB AT 12Z...AND SHIP LADQ4
REPORTED 39 KT AND 1003.0 MB AT 13Z.  THUS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN-E HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM NORMAN.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  

THE SHIP REPORT INDICATES NORMAN IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS 025/6. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN THE STORM ON A NORTHWEST
TRACK.  HOWEVER...ANY CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION WOULD BRING
THE CENTER INLAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK MOVES NORMAN INLAND
AND GRADUALLY CURVES IT NORTHWESTWARD AS IT DISSIPATES.  IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT NORMAN COULD TURN MORE SHARPLY AND EMERGE OVER THE
PACIFIC BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

NORMAN SHOWS CLOUD TOPS TO -83C...AND SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL...WITH DISSIPATION IN 36 TO 48 HR.  HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWESTWARD TURN OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORM NEAR OR
OVER WATER...IT COULD STAY ALIVE FOR LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

WITH THE SLOW MOTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...COULD RESULT IN
TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE
LIKELY
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 18.0N 102.8W    40 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 18.5N 102.8W    35 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     21/1200Z 19.2N 103.1W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     22/0000Z 19.8N 103.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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