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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2000
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E HAS INCREASED
SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IT IS POORLY ORGANIZED.  WHILE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...SHIP C6LF9...LOCATED NEAR
THE CENTER...REPORTED 1007.1 MB AND 20 KT AT 06Z.  THUS THE MAXIMUM
WINDS REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  THE SHIP ALSO SUGGESTS THE
CENTER IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THUS CAUSING A
RARE NIGHTTIME RE-LOCATION.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS 335/8.  A MID/LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE OR THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY AND VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK.  AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE
DEPRESSION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THE TIME THE CYCLONE ARRIVES.  SINCE
THE FORECAST TRACK STILL PASSES OVER THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE COLD
WATER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR MODEST
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL AND GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTERWARDS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 20.6N 107.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 21.7N 108.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     17/0600Z 23.0N 109.9W    40 KTS
36HR VT     17/1800Z 24.4N 111.4W    40 KTS
48HR VT     18/0600Z 25.5N 113.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     19/0600Z 27.5N 117.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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