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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2000
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E DISAPPEARED
DURING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOW
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.

THE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 
SYNOPTIC REASONING OR THE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY AND VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK.  AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE...AND LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THE TIME THE CYCLONE
ARRIVES.  THEN THERE IS THE QUESTION OF WHETHER THE CYCLONE WILL
TRACK OVER THE COLD WATER WEST OF BAJA...THE WARM WATER OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...OR UP THE PENINSULA.  SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK
PASSES OVER THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE COLD WATER...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL AND
GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTERWARDS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 20.6N 107.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 21.9N 108.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 23.4N 110.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 24.7N 111.4W    40 KTS
48HR VT     18/0000Z 26.0N 113.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     19/0000Z 28.0N 116.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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