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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE SEP 12 2000
 
A BURST OF CONVECTION OCCURRED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE
EVENING...SHOWING THAT LANE IS STILL ALIVE DESPITE BEING OVER 21C
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE BURST
IS LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF LANE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB ARE 45 KT...45 KT...AND 35 KT
RESPECTIVELY.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

LANE IS MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THE
INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 325/10...AND THE SHORT-TERM
MOTION MAY BE EVEN MORE TO THE NORTH.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 38N132W AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THIS COMBINATION IS
SHOULD MOVED LANE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE REST OF ITS LIFE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO THE CHANGE IN MOTION...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE BAMS.
 
THE CURRENT TROUGH INTERACTION HAS LIKELY EXTENDED LANE'S LIFE AS A
TROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE
WILL SHEAR OUT AND STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE STORM.  BETWEEN THIS AND THE VERY COLD WATER LANE
SHOULD RESUME WEAKENING...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE...SOME REMNANT LOW MAY
PERSIST AFTER DISSIPATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...MOVING GENERALLY
NORTHWARD NEAR OR JUST OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST.

MOISTURE AND OUTFLOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LANE ARE CURRENTLY
SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND OREGON.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0300Z 27.0N 123.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     13/1200Z 28.4N 124.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     14/0000Z 30.4N 124.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     14/1200Z 32.4N 124.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     15/0000Z 34.5N 123.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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