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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 12 2000
 
LANE IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 45 KT...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS ABOUT 12
HOURS AGO SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING
OVER COLD WATERS IN 36 HOURS OR SO.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 310/10...AND THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF LANE
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH.   DEEPER-LAYER STEERING WOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE
ACCELERATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  HOWEVER LANE...OR ITS REMNANTS...SHOULD BE SO WEAK AND
SHALLOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS THAT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION SEEMS UNLIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NUDGED TOWARD
THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LANE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 25.6N 121.9W    45 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 26.2N 122.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 27.6N 123.8W    30 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 29.2N 124.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     14/1200Z 31.0N 124.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     15/1200Z 34.5N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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