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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 12 2000

THE WEAKENING PROCESS CONTINUES...AS LANE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS.  THERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE OF STRONGER VERTICAL
SHEAR BEGINNING OVER THE SYSTEM...SINCE THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS
BECOME SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC AND MORE NORTHWARD-ORIENTED.  THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OVER COLD WATERS IN 36 HOURS OR SO.

INITIAL MOTION...310/10...IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  A
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.   DEEPER-LAYER STEERING
WOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACCELERATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER LANE...OR ITS
REMNANTS...SHOULD BE SO WEAK AND SHALLOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION SEEMS UNLIKELY.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LANE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 24.8N 121.4W    50 KTS
12HR VT     12/1800Z 25.8N 122.7W    45 KTS
24HR VT     13/0600Z 27.6N 123.3W    35 KTS
36HR VT     13/1800Z 29.0N 123.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     14/0600Z 31.0N 123.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     15/0600Z 35.0N 122.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
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