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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON SEP 11 2000
 
LANE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR
THE SYSTEM CENTER...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED
NORTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 55 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10.  LANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN
POSSIBLY MAKE A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.  HOWEVER...
A TURN TO THE NORTH WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW DEEP THE CIRCULATION
IS AT THAT TIME.  LANE WILL BE MOVING OVER 20C SST WATER IN 36 HOURS
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ANY REMAINING CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE.  THE
REMNANTS WILL BE A LARGE SWIRL OF MOSTLY LOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WHICH WOULD BECOME STATIONARY OR DRIFT OFF THE WEST AS INDICATED BY
THE UKMET MODEL.

LANE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE CIRCULATION
OF THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL TAKE LONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO
SPIN DOWN.  ALSO...EVEN THOUGH A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CALIFORNIA...SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 23.9N 120.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 24.7N 121.8W    45 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 26.1N 123.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 27.7N 123.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     14/0000Z 29.5N 123.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     15/0000Z 32.5N 122.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED
 
 
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