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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 11 2000
THE EYE IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED ON BOTH IR AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION IS WEAKENING. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECLINE...AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 70
KNOTS. EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS WEAK AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...LANE IS APPROACHING 25 DEG C OR COOLER WATERS.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT GIVEN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS LARGE CIRCULATION TO SPIN DOWN...BUT
LANE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IF NOT
SOONER.
MOTION IS 300/10. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUES TO PREDICT A MID-
LEVEL CYCLONE...CURRENTLY NEAR 35N122W...TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE NORTH OF LANE. CONSISTENT WITH THESE CHANGES
IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE TRACK GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SHALLOW-LAYER BAM...SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.
MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM LANE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0900Z 22.4N 117.2W 70 KTS
12HR VT 11/1800Z 23.2N 118.6W 65 KTS
24HR VT 12/0600Z 24.5N 120.2W 55 KTS
36HR VT 12/1800Z 26.0N 121.5W 45 KTS
48HR VT 13/0600Z 27.5N 122.0W 35 KTS
72HR VT 14/0600Z 30.0N 122.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
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