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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 10 2000
 
WHILE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS MORE SYMMETRIC THAN EARLIER AND THE
EYE HAS CONTRACTED A BIT...THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED.  DVORAK T
NUMBERS FROM TAFB HAVE BEEN 4.5...77 KT...FOR 12 HOURS NOW...AND SO
THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT.  LANE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER
WATERS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND SHOULD THEN SLOWLY SPIN DOWN. 
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND GIVEN THE LARGE ENVELOPE OF THIS
SYSTEM...THE FORECAST DECAY IS NOT AS FAST AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE OR
AS SUGGESTED BY THE UKMET.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 300 DEGREES BUT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS
BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS.  THIS PROBABLY INDICATES
THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF LANE
IS DECREASING AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  BOTH THE UKMET AND THE AVN WEAKEN THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS...THE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL.

LARGE QUANTITIES OF MOISTURE FROM LANE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. STATES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/2100Z 21.5N 115.5W    80 KTS
12HR VT     11/0600Z 21.9N 116.5W    80 KTS
24HR VT     11/1800Z 22.9N 118.2W    70 KTS
36HR VT     12/0600Z 24.0N 120.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     12/1800Z 25.5N 121.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     13/1800Z 28.5N 122.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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